WHOMP....recession? - Page 3

killercane · 16-09-2008, 15:37

Quote:

quote:Originally posted by Robboo

Quote:

quote:Originally posted by killercane

Oil is down 35% the last few months; gas prices are down 7%. Sigh...

Gas prices are pretty easy to explain...almost 20 % of the refining capacity down due to Ike and Gustav. Depending on where you live almost 100% of your areas gas could come from Houston area. (Georgia, Tenn, SC, NC, KEn...big time Houston importers.) Check out gas buddies temperature map to see what I mean. Couple that with increase use in the Gulf of Mexico region and you have a shortage. Supposedly there is a 3 day storage supply...we just went past 3 days since shut down.

/puts on tin foil hat.

Its all BS. Katrina was the first one that saw a "refinery/supply/whatever crisis" and prices stayed high afterwards, ie avg prices pre katrina were significantly less than post-katrina. Katrina was a test on how much people could take, and that test is ongoing. I predict this will be the same situation. Katrina gas went from $2.10->$3, 50%; Gas here went from $3.50->$5, what is that, 43%?

With the aforementioned gas, we had a small family trip this weekend. Gas here was $5.29, gas south about 45 miles was $3.99. Somebody is gouging somewhere on the downstream./takes off tin foil hat

And Im going to make the bold statement-> if you fix oil, you fix the economy. The market is now such in TN, that people are throwing money everywhere trying to hit the big one in a super small market (28th or 30th out of all states that produce oil). It costs $40k to drill a dry well, and these guys are wildcatting all over the place with a 10% success rate and running a profitable enterprise.

Shabbaman · 16-09-2008, 15:56

Quote:

quote:Originally posted by killercane

And Im going to make the bold statement-> if you fix oil, you fix the economy.

Added value has to come from something, whether it be from intellectual labor to mechanical labor. Energy plays a large role in this, so, yes, if energy prices go down, profit goes up. Perhaps it'd be a nice change of pace if your and my government would put their focus on renewables instead of finite resources. Because any way you look at it, we're going to run out of fuel. Oil price is high enough for renewables like photovoltaics and windmills to produce energy competitively.

TBH I doubt if the US economy is one that can be fixed this easily: with a deficit large enough to fill the gap in the ozone layer I'd suspect the US gets into trouble anyway.

killercane · 16-09-2008, 17:01

Fix is definitely a relative term. Moving towards a smooth bounceback rather than a jagged bottoming out is what oil can do. Turning to renewables is as inevitable as the oil running out, so the marketing push towards hydrogen and the upselling of the market is a conscious confirmation of that by the bad guys.

Really the move towards electric is on the verge of exploding. Just give people an attractive car that can go 70 mph with a 200 mile range for less than $25-30k and you will make billions. Battery tech is not there but its pretty darn close. If you look at Tesla's creation (the sports car), the only reason I can fathom why they would put out a high end model like that is the $20k battery cost to hide in the total price. Nobody would pay 100k for a family wagon. So what is the solution there? State subsidies for batteries? A more proactive role for government in their production?

Robboo · 17-09-2008, 01:00

Here is a clue....
Loop Oil Port. Still not functioning at 100%( despite what it says..how do I know...airborn fly over of the site dated Sunday shows water ~2 feet deep-yes I have seen the actual pictures***)
http://www.loopllc.com/f1.cfm?n=1
"LOOP is connected to over 50 percent of the U.S. refinery capacity"

Think what you want about prices being manipulated post-katrina. And I am not saying they weren't to some degree. However, things at at least one major refinery are still not back up and running since Katrina. Couple that with increase usage(every year) and higher inflation and you get higher prices. Again certain parts of the country are supplied by certain refineries which are in turn supplied by certain parts of the country for oil. A Storm here in LA effects the SE more so than it does the NE. California supplied by such refineries in Deer Park. TX(houston area) happens to supply TN.

What 90% of the country fails to realize is just how much of the oil industry is in LA. Ike....we had stronger surge here than Gustav. I have first hand knowledge of that from work. When you couple those two facts and the fact that one of the biggest Exxon plants here in BR is still not at 100% you can see why prices are higher than before the storm. Granted the pre-Ike run-up was speculation but it panned out.

*** my current job duties are damage reports from on the ground contacts for fisheries and I have lots of pictures come across my desk. This just so happens to be in our largest fishery infrastructural area.

grahamiam · 17-09-2008, 02:55

God damnit, another freakin' bailout. This time of AIG. I was hoping that once LHM was allowed to fail, there'd be no more bailouts. I love how when things are good, everyone of the financial pinheads spout off about less gov't regulation, the better. But once they shit their bed, they go to the gov't and get their handouts. Seems like it's a free market till they are in trouble, then it's corporate socialism. Welcome to the USSCA comrades (see attached)! Seriously, let the IBanks and other garbage fail, and let the well run companies come in and take over.

Why the hell should US Taxpayers take on the garbage that's AIG? Mortgages (F/F) I kinda understand (but really, really hate) since it was a gov't entity before, but insurance? Fuck that. There's a reason why well run companies want no part of AIG.

Sorry if this rant is OT from the mess in Texas and the other stuff.
OT: re: Tesla: First adoptors pay for the R&D, that's the way it's always been. So the next Tesla car I believe is supposed to be a Sedan and more in line with a luxury car (ie, ~40k). If that sells well, they'll probably get bought by GM and then start mass producing affordable cars. This is all assuming that the next president does something to help upgrade the Electrical Distribution infrastructure. Without that upgrade, I don't know how the grid will be able to handle all these electric cars and plug-in hybrids. AFAIK, the problems from the 2005 blackout have not been fixed.

Download Attachment: [img]icon_paperclip.gif[/img] dowfed090808.zip
65.11KB

akots · 17-09-2008, 03:43

AIG were going down for quite some time just because they have without any explanation increased my car insurance premium about 6 months ago by over 30% at same coverage level. This means the company is not doing good and trying to cover up the tracks by overcharging customers. Also, they've been cursed by me meself and that is also worth something. Of course I switched to another reasonable provider.

With house market, it just fell since the houses were overpriced which is quite good and means and dollar is worth something while some houses do not. So, once those banks who were inflating prices and overcharging people for their shitty property are starting to feel the values deflating, instead of admitting their screwing up, they want somebody to cover their arse which is very unfair especially if it comes from federal budget. On the other hand, if they are not salvaged, they would drop the stock market badly and this would actually damage the dollar while probably the house market will be fixed by that again since the dollar would depreciate. This is mine quite primitive view on this.

killercane · 17-09-2008, 04:34

Well maybe AIG can pay my clients that have been shit on by them over the past year or two. Seriously, it is a terribly run company; they just bleed money to the wrong people in just the limited time I have dealt with them. But anyways, I think I ranted on insurance cos. in one of Mauer's threads. A bailout for these fools is ludicrous.

RE: Tesla. I see where this Norwegian company Think is building a car sort of to a mass market using batteries from an Indianapolis company. Why build the cars there though and not enjoy cheaper labor in the states to market IN the states?

Stapel · 17-09-2008, 07:26

About investment during a recession. History shows that stock markets bottom out during or even before a recession. Recessions do usually not cause a downfall of stock values. They mark the end of it. So, in a few months, if you have some money to invest, it's buying time!

romeothemonk · 17-09-2008, 13:03

I agree with Killer and Graham re:Bailout. I want to see one of these clowns topple!! AIG hasn't been run worth a dang in the past 3 years.
So they do a bailout, and still don't wipe out all the shareholders. If they would do a bailout and just say all stock, common and preferred is worthless and the ENTIRE BOARD gets fired and 10,000 hours of community service each, and loses their pension and bennies, then I might not be so irate. But I am.
I am working a a2nd job at frigging Wal-Mart to dig out of any debt including my Mortgage ASAP. I should be able to do it in ~ 5 years. These jokers get bailed out, lose their job, but take millions to the FREAKING BANK.
/end rant

Shabbaman · 17-09-2008, 13:06

I wonder what will happen with their sponsorship of ManU

17-09-2008, 03:43	#26
akots Nebuchadnezzar II Join Date: Apr 2004 Location: Glover Park Posts: 4,459	AIG were going down for quite some time just because they have without any explanation increased my car insurance premium about 6 months ago by over 30% at same coverage level. This means the company is not doing good and trying to cover up the tracks by overcharging customers. Also, they've been cursed by me meself and that is also worth something. Of course I switched to another reasonable provider. With house market, it just fell since the houses were overpriced which is quite good and means and dollar is worth something while some houses do not. So, once those banks who were inflating prices and overcharging people for their shitty property are starting to feel the values deflating, instead of admitting their screwing up, they want somebody to cover their arse which is very unfair especially if it comes from federal budget. On the other hand, if they are not salvaged, they would drop the stock market badly and this would actually damage the dollar while probably the house market will be fixed by that again since the dollar would depreciate. This is mine quite primitive view on this. __________________ Cujusvis hominis est errare; nullius, nisi insipientis in errore perseverare Ciceron (Marcus Tullius)

17-09-2008, 07:26	#28
Stapel Emperor Join Date: Mar 2003 Location: Netherlands. Posts: 3,196	About investment during a recession. History shows that stock markets bottom out during or even before a recession. Recessions do usually not cause a downfall of stock values. They mark the end of it. So, in a few months, if you have some money to invest, it's buying time! __________________ Vrooooooooooommmmmm Stapel doesn't like cricket

17-09-2008, 13:03	#29
romeothemonk King Join Date: Aug 2004 Location: Yankton, SD. Posts: 1,310	I agree with Killer and Graham re:Bailout. I want to see one of these clowns topple!! AIG hasn't been run worth a dang in the past 3 years. So they do a bailout, and still don't wipe out all the shareholders. If they would do a bailout and just say all stock, common and preferred is worthless and the ENTIRE BOARD gets fired and 10,000 hours of community service each, and loses their pension and bennies, then I might not be so irate. But I am. I am working a a2nd job at frigging Wal-Mart to dig out of any debt including my Mortgage ASAP. I should be able to do it in ~ 5 years. These jokers get bailed out, lose their job, but take millions to the FREAKING BANK. /end rant __________________ I am not crazy cause I take the right pills..................................... Everyday

17-09-2008, 13:06	#30
Shabbaman Administrator Join Date: Mar 2003 Location: Costa La Haya Posts: 8,494	I wonder what will happen with their sponsorship of ManU __________________ "Our spam is backed with COMETS!"

16-09-2008, 17:01	#23
killercane Prince Join Date: Sep 2005 Posts: 959	Fix is definitely a relative term. Moving towards a smooth bounceback rather than a jagged bottoming out is what oil can do. Turning to renewables is as inevitable as the oil running out, so the marketing push towards hydrogen and the upselling of the market is a conscious confirmation of that by the bad guys. Really the move towards electric is on the verge of exploding. Just give people an attractive car that can go 70 mph with a 200 mile range for less than $25-30k and you will make billions. Battery tech is not there but its pretty darn close. If you look at Tesla's creation (the sports car), the only reason I can fathom why they would put out a high end model like that is the $20k battery cost to hide in the total price. Nobody would pay 100k for a family wagon. So what is the solution there? State subsidies for batteries? A more proactive role for government in their production?

17-09-2008, 01:00	#24
Robboo King Join Date: May 2006 Location: Cajun Country. Posts: 2,002	Here is a clue.... Loop Oil Port. Still not functioning at 100%( despite what it says..how do I know...airborn fly over of the site dated Sunday shows water ~2 feet deep-yes I have seen the actual pictures*) http://www.loopllc.com/f1.cfm?n=1 "LOOP is connected to over 50 percent of the U.S. refinery capacity" Think what you want about prices being manipulated post-katrina. And I am not saying they weren't to some degree. However, things at at least one major refinery are still not back up and running since Katrina. Couple that with increase usage(every year) and higher inflation and you get higher prices. Again certain parts of the country are supplied by certain refineries which are in turn supplied by certain parts of the country for oil. A Storm here in LA effects the SE more so than it does the NE. California supplied by such refineries in Deer Park. TX(houston area) happens to supply TN. What 90% of the country fails to realize is just how much of the oil industry is in LA. Ike....we had stronger surge here than Gustav. I have first hand knowledge of that from work. When you couple those two facts and the fact that one of the biggest Exxon plants here in BR is still not at 100% you can see why prices are higher than before the storm. Granted the pre-Ike run-up was speculation but it panned out. * my current job duties are damage reports from on the ground contacts for fisheries and I have lots of pictures come across my desk. This just so happens to be in our largest fishery infrastructural area.

17-09-2008, 02:55	#25
grahamiam Emperor Join Date: May 2004 Location: USA, East Coast. Posts: 2,673	God damnit, another freakin' bailout. This time of AIG. I was hoping that once LHM was allowed to fail, there'd be no more bailouts. I love how when things are good, everyone of the financial pinheads spout off about less gov't regulation, the better. But once they shit their bed, they go to the gov't and get their handouts. Seems like it's a free market till they are in trouble, then it's corporate socialism. Welcome to the USSCA comrades (see attached)! Seriously, let the IBanks and other garbage fail, and let the well run companies come in and take over. Why the hell should US Taxpayers take on the garbage that's AIG? Mortgages (F/F) I kinda understand (but really, really hate) since it was a gov't entity before, but insurance? Fuck that. There's a reason why well run companies want no part of AIG. Sorry if this rant is OT from the mess in Texas and the other stuff. OT: re: Tesla: First adoptors pay for the R&D, that's the way it's always been. So the next Tesla car I believe is supposed to be a Sedan and more in line with a luxury car (ie, ~40k). If that sells well, they'll probably get bought by GM and then start mass producing affordable cars. This is all assuming that the next president does something to help upgrade the Electrical Distribution infrastructure. Without that upgrade, I don't know how the grid will be able to handle all these electric cars and plug-in hybrids. AFAIK, the problems from the 2005 blackout have not been fixed. Download Attachment: [img]icon_paperclip.gif[/img] dowfed090808.zip 65.11KB

17-09-2008, 04:34	#27
killercane Prince Join Date: Sep 2005 Posts: 959	Well maybe AIG can pay my clients that have been shit on by them over the past year or two. Seriously, it is a terribly run company; they just bleed money to the wrong people in just the limited time I have dealt with them. But anyways, I think I ranted on insurance cos. in one of Mauer's threads. A bailout for these fools is ludicrous. RE: Tesla. I see where this Norwegian company Think is building a car sort of to a mass market using batteries from an Indianapolis company. Why build the cars there though and not enjoy cheaper labor in the states to market IN the states?