financial crisis

ProPain · 13-10-2008, 00:16

Over here the news these days is dictated by the financial crisis we're facing and the impact it will have on 'real' economy. Personally it isn't affecting me very much in the short run (I own just a little stock and my mortgage interest rate is fixed for the next 2 decades) but I do wonder what the impact will be the upcoming months economy wise. I'm thinking this will not just blow over and recession will strike us all.

akots · 13-10-2008, 00:30

The worst can happen here IMO, is quite devastating. But really, we must look positively. So, may be 2-3 years of 10% inflation with no salary increase?

Beam · 13-10-2008, 02:05

As far as I have experienced in the past this usually leads to cuts in investment budgets, which in turn leads companies depending on those to cut costs. With investment I mean something as simple as a fridge up to something as big as a multi billion development.

Something we haven't seen since Bretton Woods however is that the financial system itself is shaking like hell. And imo only when that is settled (or not) one can give a true answer.

Shabbaman · 13-10-2008, 09:41

A recession is still not a depression. If the GNP doesn't grow but shrink (i.e. recession) this doesn't mean that much in itself. With investment banks not creating money out of nowhere the GNP will shrink anyway. If this "new" money isn't invested, this can indeed have some influence in the "real" economy. This would affect me, as I'm advising on the (im)possibilities of new investments (changes, expansions, new buildings etc.). But a lot of investments are long term projects to begin with, so it'd have to be a really long recession before it'd affect the company.

I hope.

romeothemonk · 13-10-2008, 13:09

The good thing about the "recession" and credit freeze here in America is that people that are broke can't get money. That is really awesome!!
Without people with no financial skills getting there hands on money, we as a people are blowing less money frivolously.
I will have some updated posts in my forum later this week with some thoughts on the matter, plus my own personal solution. It will just take some time to put together.

digger760 · 13-10-2008, 14:02

They'll join the amish (not sure if that is spelt right) and be self sufficient

Melifluous · 13-10-2008, 14:17

Well I work for a software house attached to a fairly small independant stockbroker.

I've been keeping an eye on the recent activity on the market and from a business point of view it's not too bad for us. (However people without money dont invest in shares).

The nasty thing I see is the way the banks could fail.

1) After lending money foolishly to allcomers the banks realise that they are going to have to just write off lots of money. They wont get it back.

2) Some banks had worse positions than others, the public find out.

3) People start taking money out of the banks in question.

4) Other banks wont lend money to the troubled banks.

5) The banks dont have all the money to pay their customers (most of a banks money is tied up in long term loans to building developers)

6) Bank folds. People get wary of other banks. Rinse and repeat.

7) Building developers, Oil exploration, anything that needs a lot of money to do new stuff can't get the money.

8) Everything stops.

9) People get laid off.

10) People then spend less, which means more shops close, shed workers.

11) Shit hits the fan and we all die...

Pretty scary if you ask me. A farm seems like a good investment to me at the moment

Darkness · 13-10-2008, 14:24

Quote:

Originally Posted by Melifluous

Pretty scary if you ask me. A farm seems like a good investment to me at the moment

Hmmm... You never struck me as the cattle-keeping type of guy. I thought that was more Whomp's area of expertise...

Melifluous · 13-10-2008, 14:43

Raise cattle and grow crops or die doesn't seem like much of a choice to me...

Shabbaman · 13-10-2008, 14:45

Well, the governments are trying very hard not to let the banks fail.

13-10-2008, 00:16	#1
ProPain Customized Admin :) Join Date: Mar 2003 Location: sailing the seas of cheese. Posts: 5,852	financial crisis Over here the news these days is dictated by the financial crisis we're facing and the impact it will have on 'real' economy. Personally it isn't affecting me very much in the short run (I own just a little stock and my mortgage interest rate is fixed for the next 2 decades) but I do wonder what the impact will be the upcoming months economy wise. I'm thinking this will not just blow over and recession will strike us all. __________________ I fed my Dog the American Dream Well, he rolled over and he started to scream He said, I dig the taste of salt but it don't keep me alive yeah, yeah

13-10-2008, 00:30	#2
akots Nebuchadnezzar II Join Date: Apr 2004 Location: Glover Park Posts: 4,459	The worst can happen here IMO, is quite devastating. But really, we must look positively. So, may be 2-3 years of 10% inflation with no salary increase? __________________ Cujusvis hominis est errare; nullius, nisi insipientis in errore perseverare Ciceron (Marcus Tullius) Last edited by akots; 13-10-2008 at 02:55.

13-10-2008, 02:05	#3
Beam c00l b33r Join Date: Nov 2003 Location: Beat 'm up Scotty!. Lives in the Lands that are Nether. Posts: 5,094	As far as I have experienced in the past this usually leads to cuts in investment budgets, which in turn leads companies depending on those to cut costs. With investment I mean something as simple as a fridge up to something as big as a multi billion development. Something we haven't seen since Bretton Woods however is that the financial system itself is shaking like hell. And imo only when that is settled (or not) one can give a true answer. __________________ That was a pretty good gamble. -- Scotty, The Galileo Seven, stardate 2821.5, Episode 14 Linux never looked this good!

13-10-2008, 09:41	#4
Shabbaman Administrator Join Date: Mar 2003 Location: Costa La Haya Posts: 8,494	A recession is still not a depression. If the GNP doesn't grow but shrink (i.e. recession) this doesn't mean that much in itself. With investment banks not creating money out of nowhere the GNP will shrink anyway. If this "new" money isn't invested, this can indeed have some influence in the "real" economy. This would affect me, as I'm advising on the (im)possibilities of new investments (changes, expansions, new buildings etc.). But a lot of investments are long term projects to begin with, so it'd have to be a really long recession before it'd affect the company. I hope. __________________ "Our spam is backed with COMETS!"

13-10-2008, 13:09	#5
romeothemonk King Join Date: Aug 2004 Location: Yankton, SD. Posts: 1,310	The good thing about the "recession" and credit freeze here in America is that people that are broke can't get money. That is really awesome!! Without people with no financial skills getting there hands on money, we as a people are blowing less money frivolously. I will have some updated posts in my forum later this week with some thoughts on the matter, plus my own personal solution. It will just take some time to put together. __________________ I am not crazy cause I take the right pills..................................... Everyday

13-10-2008, 14:02	#6
digger760 King Join Date: Apr 2003 Location: The Fake Dog Poo Factory. Posts: 1,887	They'll join the amish (not sure if that is spelt right) and be self sufficient

13-10-2008, 14:17	#7
Melifluous Administrator Join Date: Mar 2003 Location: In the bar with SF. Posts: 3,024	Well I work for a software house attached to a fairly small independant stockbroker. I've been keeping an eye on the recent activity on the market and from a business point of view it's not too bad for us. (However people without money dont invest in shares). The nasty thing I see is the way the banks could fail. 1) After lending money foolishly to allcomers the banks realise that they are going to have to just write off lots of money. They wont get it back. 2) Some banks had worse positions than others, the public find out. 3) People start taking money out of the banks in question. 4) Other banks wont lend money to the troubled banks. 5) The banks dont have all the money to pay their customers (most of a banks money is tied up in long term loans to building developers) 6) Bank folds. People get wary of other banks. Rinse and repeat. 7) Building developers, Oil exploration, anything that needs a lot of money to do new stuff can't get the money. 8) Everything stops. 9) People get laid off. 10) People then spend less, which means more shops close, shed workers. 11) Shit hits the fan and we all die... Pretty scary if you ask me. A farm seems like a good investment to me at the moment __________________ Isn't it awfully nice to have a penis? Isn't it frightfully good to have a dong? It's swell to have a stiffy, It's divine to own a dick. From the tiniest little tadger To the world's biggest prick! So three cheers for your willy or John Thomas. Hooray for your one-eyed trousers snake.

13-10-2008, 14:43	#9
Melifluous Administrator Join Date: Mar 2003 Location: In the bar with SF. Posts: 3,024	Raise cattle and grow crops or die doesn't seem like much of a choice to me... __________________ Isn't it awfully nice to have a penis? Isn't it frightfully good to have a dong? It's swell to have a stiffy, It's divine to own a dick. From the tiniest little tadger To the world's biggest prick! So three cheers for your willy or John Thomas. Hooray for your one-eyed trousers snake.

13-10-2008, 14:45	#10
Shabbaman Administrator Join Date: Mar 2003 Location: Costa La Haya Posts: 8,494	Well, the governments are trying very hard not to let the banks fail. __________________ "Our spam is backed with COMETS!"