Civ Duel Zone  

Go Back   Civ Duel Zone > Civilization > General Discussion > Civ IV
Home

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 04-08-2008, 23:30   #1
Matrix
Administrator
 
Matrix's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: Tampere, Finland
Posts: 4,828
Default Against the odds


52.77KB



Losing a units with 99.3% chance of victory is one thing, but leaving the other unit unscratched is another!

The "(Extra Combat: -30%)" must have something to do with it. Does anyone have any idea what that means?
__________________
Matrix is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-08-2008, 00:06   #2
Robboo
King
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Cajun Country.
Posts: 2,002
Default

I saw that too on one of my games and thought it was because on the AI's move that unit was attacked.
Robboo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-08-2008, 00:07   #3
ProPain
Customized Admin :)
 
ProPain's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: sailing the seas of cheese.
Posts: 5,852
Default

Did you attack or did the Cat attack (missing the upper line)
__________________
I fed my Dog the American Dream
Well, he rolled over and he started to scream
He said, I dig the taste of salt but it don't keep me alive yeah, yeah
ProPain is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-08-2008, 02:12   #4
Matrix
Administrator
 
Matrix's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: Tampere, Finland
Posts: 4,828
Default

I attacked. An attacking catapult can't defeat units, only damage.

I don't know if the maceman was attacked in the AI's turn, but that's unlikely to me.
__________________
Matrix is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-08-2008, 10:32   #5
Robi D
King
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: Adelaide, Australia.
Posts: 2,060
Default

The axeman wasn't attacked as it had all its HP's

The extra combat listed doesn't change the odds already written, so you did have 99.3% odds, you were just unlucky enough to roll the 0.7% 8 times in a row.

If my maths is correct the chance of that happening is 1 in 1 734 665 000 000 000.

For comparison winning lotto is around 1 in 10 000 000. In fact you have a better chance winning lotto 2 weeks in a row then getting that result. Maybe you should buy a ticket

You should keep the screenshot it definately a once in a lifetime event.
__________________
"I'm altering the deal, prey I don't alter it further" Darth Vader

"We shall defend what is ours.
We shall never surrender" --Kosovo is Serbia!
Robi D is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-08-2008, 11:24   #6
Lt. Killer M
Emperor
 
Lt. Killer M's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: HAWK!.
Posts: 4,365
Default

I have seen such combats quite often, and have started trying for them, too. My absolute best was a warrior attacking at 0.0% odds displayed and winning without a scratch

Yes, it is unusual to unlikely combats go only one way, with no scratch, but it does happen surprisingly often.


Robi D: I used to take screenies. I dumped them when I had about 20 of >99.9% fights that I lost, about 1/3 of them with no scratch.
__________________
One more turn..... just one more turn... one MORE!
Lt. Killer M is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-08-2008, 12:08   #7
ProPain
Customized Admin :)
 
ProPain's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: sailing the seas of cheese.
Posts: 5,852
Default

Quote:
quote:Originally posted by Robi D

The axeman wasn't attacked as it had all its HP's

The extra combat listed doesn't change the odds already written, so you did have 99.3% odds, you were just unlucky enough to roll the 0.7% 8 times in a row.
Is that the way he odds work in Civ? I always thought that the 99,3% was the overall chance of winning the battle, instead of the chance for each attack. In that case Matrix would have hit the 0.7% chance which is a lot more likely and also saves him a trip to buy some lottery tickets.
__________________
I fed my Dog the American Dream
Well, he rolled over and he started to scream
He said, I dig the taste of salt but it don't keep me alive yeah, yeah
ProPain is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-08-2008, 12:59   #8
Robi D
King
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: Adelaide, Australia.
Posts: 2,060
Default

Quote:
quote:Originally posted by ProPain

Quote:
quote:Originally posted by Robi D

The axeman wasn't attacked as it had all its HP's

The extra combat listed doesn't change the odds already written, so you did have 99.3% odds, you were just unlucky enough to roll the 0.7% 8 times in a row.
Is that the way he odds work in Civ? I always thought that the 99,3% was the overall chance of winning the battle, instead of the chance for each attack. In that case Matrix would have hit the 0.7% chance which is a lot more likely and also saves him a trip to buy some lottery tickets.
I thought it was per battle, but even if its overall then the 99.3% is the chance of just winning the battle, it doesn't say whether you would get damaged or not.

If your right then the per battle odds would not be that much different so the odds would still be very very high
__________________
"I'm altering the deal, prey I don't alter it further" Darth Vader

"We shall defend what is ours.
We shall never surrender" --Kosovo is Serbia!
Robi D is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-08-2008, 14:21   #9
Matrix
Administrator
 
Matrix's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: Tampere, Finland
Posts: 4,828
Default

According to this article on the other site the chance for the catapult to win one round is 32.5%. So the chance to win eight times in a row is 0.325^8 = 0.000123 = 0.0123%

That's 1:8099.
__________________
Matrix is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-08-2008, 16:20   #10
ProPain
Customized Admin :)
 
ProPain's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: sailing the seas of cheese.
Posts: 5,852
Default

interesting article. And an extraordinary run of bad luck for you as well.
__________________
I fed my Dog the American Dream
Well, he rolled over and he started to scream
He said, I dig the taste of salt but it don't keep me alive yeah, yeah
ProPain is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Forum Jump


All times are GMT +2. The time now is 15:01.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.7.3
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.