04-08-2008, 22:30 | #1 |
Administrator
Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: Tampere, Finland
Posts: 4,828
|
Against the odds
52.77KB Losing a units with 99.3% chance of victory is one thing, but leaving the other unit unscratched is another! The "(Extra Combat: -30%)" must have something to do with it. Does anyone have any idea what that means?
__________________
|
04-08-2008, 23:06 | #2 |
King
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Cajun Country.
Posts: 2,002
|
I saw that too on one of my games and thought it was because on the AI's move that unit was attacked.
|
04-08-2008, 23:07 | #3 |
Customized Admin :)
Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: sailing the seas of cheese.
Posts: 5,852
|
Did you attack or did the Cat attack (missing the upper line)
__________________
I fed my Dog the American Dream Well, he rolled over and he started to scream He said, I dig the taste of salt but it don't keep me alive yeah, yeah |
05-08-2008, 01:12 | #4 |
Administrator
Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: Tampere, Finland
Posts: 4,828
|
I attacked. An attacking catapult can't defeat units, only damage.
I don't know if the maceman was attacked in the AI's turn, but that's unlikely to me.
__________________
|
05-08-2008, 09:32 | #5 |
King
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: Adelaide, Australia.
Posts: 2,060
|
The axeman wasn't attacked as it had all its HP's
The extra combat listed doesn't change the odds already written, so you did have 99.3% odds, you were just unlucky enough to roll the 0.7% 8 times in a row. If my maths is correct the chance of that happening is 1 in 1 734 665 000 000 000. For comparison winning lotto is around 1 in 10 000 000. In fact you have a better chance winning lotto 2 weeks in a row then getting that result. Maybe you should buy a ticket You should keep the screenshot it definately a once in a lifetime event.
__________________
"I'm altering the deal, prey I don't alter it further" Darth Vader "We shall defend what is ours. We shall never surrender" --Kosovo is Serbia! |
05-08-2008, 10:24 | #6 |
Emperor
Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: HAWK!.
Posts: 4,365
|
I have seen such combats quite often, and have started trying for them, too. My absolute best was a warrior attacking at 0.0% odds displayed and winning without a scratch
Yes, it is unusual to unlikely combats go only one way, with no scratch, but it does happen surprisingly often. Robi D: I used to take screenies. I dumped them when I had about 20 of >99.9% fights that I lost, about 1/3 of them with no scratch.
__________________
One more turn..... just one more turn... one MORE! |
05-08-2008, 11:08 | #7 | |
Customized Admin :)
Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: sailing the seas of cheese.
Posts: 5,852
|
Quote:
__________________
I fed my Dog the American Dream Well, he rolled over and he started to scream He said, I dig the taste of salt but it don't keep me alive yeah, yeah |
|
05-08-2008, 11:59 | #8 | ||
King
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: Adelaide, Australia.
Posts: 2,060
|
Quote:
If your right then the per battle odds would not be that much different so the odds would still be very very high
__________________
"I'm altering the deal, prey I don't alter it further" Darth Vader "We shall defend what is ours. We shall never surrender" --Kosovo is Serbia! |
||
05-08-2008, 13:21 | #9 |
Administrator
Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: Tampere, Finland
Posts: 4,828
|
According to this article on the other site the chance for the catapult to win one round is 32.5%. So the chance to win eight times in a row is 0.325^8 = 0.000123 = 0.0123%
That's 1:8099.
__________________
|
05-08-2008, 15:20 | #10 |
Customized Admin :)
Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: sailing the seas of cheese.
Posts: 5,852
|
interesting article. And an extraordinary run of bad luck for you as well.
__________________
I fed my Dog the American Dream Well, he rolled over and he started to scream He said, I dig the taste of salt but it don't keep me alive yeah, yeah |