Update:
given my natural tendencies - builder but always tempted by conquest - I have decided to build a strong military while expanding carefully. This means chopping forests to go into settlers, and otherwise letting cities grow by building troops and improving terrain.
A new dotmap - the first was a 20 second look at how much space there is around me - looks much better:
The obvious build locality if I attack the yellow disease in the NW is the dot to the N and 1 W of my capital. Otherwise, it may be saner to settle the NE. The NW is out: Iron Working is too long in researching (although I must, and soon) and I have too few workers to quickly utilize the jungled lands.