The odds of a flip, 0.47%. In 30 turns, the period in which I'm fairly sure that I'll show up at their gates with a force of swordsmen, that chance'd be 13.11%.
Actually, that chance is higher in fact: my culture is now 367, his 109. The difference is that I have temples and they don't. So, in 30 turns, with 4 temples, I have at least 120 more culture (assuming that they won't build any more cultural buildings...), even more since some of the temples are over 1000 years old. By then, the chance is about 0.63%
Woohoo!
Well, they only got 3 cities anyway, and I'm not really expecting their capital to flip, so I'll do it the old fashioned way.
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