A tiny update to report that the gamble paid off well in the end.... I managed to make peace with Caesar 2 turns after the previous update, and have now switched from warrior to settler in the capital. 17 turns is an awful long time, but until I have forest chops available, there is no way to speed things up, the land is too rough to let Timbuktu grow further in size and get a real profit from it.
Btw, 7(!) turns to farm a floodplain is an awful long time.