It is completely jury dependant. Juries can be all over the place; if its stacked with old ladies who have never heard of Kazaa or Napster, Thomas is in for trouble. A younger, computer literate jury would be more sympathetic.
Judge Davis' ruling on proving transfer to other users could help Thomas preserve an issue on appeal, and the jury instructions in general will basically be the whole case. If the judge frames it so that Virgin has to prove 1) the songs were not owned by Thomas; 2) they were downloaded by Thomas, and no one else had access to the computer; 3) Thomas transferred the songs to others; and 4) prove that this caused someone not to purchase their music, ie damages in lost sales (very difficult to prove), then the burden is high on Virgin to prove all these things. On the other hand, the judge might decide that the DMCA only requires proving that the songs were on the computer and available via the internet to be downloaded to constitute infringement.
Also, I think a big point on appeal should be the theatrics of copying a CD in the courtroom in front of the jury without controlling the conditions, ie with the same hardware and software in use on the computer at the time the alleged downloads took place.
I think Virgin will prevail. The absence of putting anyone on the stand for the defense tells me they have decided an appeal is their best bet and Thomas must have a backer (EFF?) paying the legal bills; if they should lose on appeal, Thomas will file bankruptcy and discharge the debt (he should meet the means test to file Chapter 7, making only $18k a year).
These lawsuits are truly a zero sum game; record companies will never pay off their legal bills with the $3000 settlements and will continue to alienate customers while college students are forced into bankruptcy or more debt.