Against the odds
 

http://www.civ3duelzone.com/forum/up...nstTheOdds.jpg
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[eek]

Losing a units with 99.3% chance of victory is one thing, but leaving the other unit unscratched is another!

The "(Extra Combat: -30%)" must have something to do with it. Does anyone have any idea what that means?

I saw that too on one of my games and thought it was because on the AI's move that unit was attacked.

Did you attack or did the Cat attack (missing the upper line)

I attacked. An attacking catapult can't defeat units, only damage.

I don't know if the maceman was attacked in the AI's turn, but that's unlikely to me.

The axeman wasn't attacked as it had all its HP's

The extra combat listed doesn't change the odds already written, so you did have 99.3% odds, you were just unlucky enough to roll the 0.7% 8 times in a row.

If my maths is correct the chance of that happening is 1 in 1 734 665 000 000 000.

For comparison winning lotto is around 1 in 10 000 000. In fact you have a better chance winning lotto 2 weeks in a row then getting that result. Maybe you should buy a ticket ;)

You should keep the screenshot it definately a once in a lifetime event.

I have seen such combats quite often, and have started trying for them, too. My absolute best was a warrior attacking at 0.0% odds displayed and winning without a scratch [lol]

Yes, it is unusual to unlikely combats go only one way, with no scratch, but it does happen surprisingly often.


Robi D: I used to take screenies. I dumped them when I had about 20 of >99.9% fights that I lost, about 1/3 of them with no scratch.

Is that the way he odds work in Civ? I always thought that the 99,3% was the overall chance of winning the battle, instead of the chance for each attack. In that case Matrix would have hit the 0.7% chance which is a lot more likely and also saves him a trip to buy some lottery tickets.

I thought it was per battle, but even if its overall then the 99.3% is the chance of just winning the battle, it doesn't say whether you would get damaged or not.

If your right then the per battle odds would not be that much different so the odds would still be very very high

According to this article on the other site the chance for the catapult to win one round is 32.5%. So the chance to win eight times in a row is 0.325^8 = 0.000123 = 0.0123%

That's 1:8099. http://www.straland.com/images/smilies/Schwarzy.gif

interesting article. And an extraordinary run of bad luck for you as well.