Against the odds
http://www.civ3duelzone.com/forum/up...nstTheOdds.jpg
52.77KB [eek] Losing a units with 99.3% chance of victory is one thing, but leaving the other unit unscratched is another! The "(Extra Combat: -30%)" must have something to do with it. Does anyone have any idea what that means? |
I saw that too on one of my games and thought it was because on the AI's move that unit was attacked.
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Did you attack or did the Cat attack (missing the upper line)
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I attacked. An attacking catapult can't defeat units, only damage.
I don't know if the maceman was attacked in the AI's turn, but that's unlikely to me. |
The axeman wasn't attacked as it had all its HP's
The extra combat listed doesn't change the odds already written, so you did have 99.3% odds, you were just unlucky enough to roll the 0.7% 8 times in a row. If my maths is correct the chance of that happening is 1 in 1 734 665 000 000 000. For comparison winning lotto is around 1 in 10 000 000. In fact you have a better chance winning lotto 2 weeks in a row then getting that result. Maybe you should buy a ticket ;) You should keep the screenshot it definately a once in a lifetime event. |
I have seen such combats quite often, and have started trying for them, too. My absolute best was a warrior attacking at 0.0% odds displayed and winning without a scratch [lol]
Yes, it is unusual to unlikely combats go only one way, with no scratch, but it does happen surprisingly often. Robi D: I used to take screenies. I dumped them when I had about 20 of >99.9% fights that I lost, about 1/3 of them with no scratch. |
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If your right then the per battle odds would not be that much different so the odds would still be very very high |
According to this article on the other site the chance for the catapult to win one round is 32.5%. So the chance to win eight times in a row is 0.325^8 = 0.000123 = 0.0123%
That's 1:8099. http://www.straland.com/images/smilies/Schwarzy.gif |
interesting article. And an extraordinary run of bad luck for you as well.
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