aargh, I quit this:

Ai reg Sword attacks fortified vet Spear on mountin. Defending arcehr misfires, Sword goes to 1 HP and kills Spear.
repeat
reg Sword attacks the fortified archer and kills it
reg Horse attacks the frotified archer and kills it

combat calc probabilities:
17,9%
17,9%
48,6%
29%

same turn:

3 archers and one warrior die for Germany, but my 4 fortified vet Spears (all promoted, too) in the walled town also die to the other 4 archers in the stack.

probability for vet archer vs fortifed vet spear in walled town: 20,1%


next turn, I attck the 2HP Horse with 3 archers. Now, it is elite @ 4 HP.......



aargh!