CDZ Toto: Dutch football competition 2007-2008

[Matrix]

With family I always have a toto for the European and World Championship football. But since we have a big thread about the Dutch competition on this site I thought a toto for that would be fun too. :) Even though I don't follow football news at all and am only interested in the results of FC Groningen - ok, I watched the final of the Champions League - this setup of this toto is quite simple, but still offers higher chances of winning for those better informed.

The rules are simple:
One must predict the final score of every match.
For every correctly
predicted winner, but wrong score: 2 points
predicted winner and score: 4 points
predicted draw, but wrong number of goals: 3 points
predicted draw including score: 4 points
(Three points, because only 20% of the matches end in draws.)

The deadline for the prognosis of every match is the minute the referee blows his wistle. So you may guess all the 306 matches all at once, or you do it weekly, or whenever you like. You may also change your prognosis as often as you want, until of course the match starts.

For now we can make the prognoses using this thread, but I'll program something online so that it all works automatically. That shouldn't be too difficult, so it could be done within a week.

Some useful stats:
Occurence of scores of the last five years of Dutch eredivisie competitions (1530 matches):
1-0: 214 (14.0%)
2-1: 212 (13.9%)
2-0: 199 (13.0%)
1-1: 146 (09.5%)
3-0: 120 (07.8%)
3-1: 115 (07.5%)
0-0: 099 (06.5%)
3-2: 078 (05.1%)
2-2: 073 (04.8%)
4-1: 056 (03.7%)
4-0: 050 (03.3%)
4-2: 035 (02.3%)
5-0: 027 (01.8%)
5-1: 025 (01.6%)
4-3: 013 (00.8%)
3-3: 012 (00.8%)
6-0: 010 (00.7%)
5-2: 008 (00.5%)
6-1: 008 (00.5%)
7-0: 007 (00.5%)
5-3: 005 (00.3%)
6-2: 005 (00.3%)
7-1: 005 (00.3%)
4-4: 004 (00.3%)
5-4: 001 (00.1%)
6-3: 001 (00.1%)
7-2: 001 (00.1%)
8-1: 001 (00.1%)

Number of goals made in total:
0: 99 (6.5%)
1: 214 (14.0%)
2: 345 (22.5%)
3: 332 (21.7%)
4: 238 (15.6%)
5: 161 (10.5%)
6: 82 (5.4%)
7: 36 (2.4%)
8: 19 (1.2%)
9: 4 (0.3%)

Number of draws:
2002-2003: 70 (22.9%)
2003-2004: 60 (19.6%)
2004-2005: 59 (19.3%)
2005-2006: 73 (23.9%)
2006-2007: 72 (23.5%)
Average: 66.8 (21.8%)

Match list (useful to copy)
17-08-2007 20:30 sc Heerenveen - Willem II:
18-08-2007 19:30 NAC Breda - FC Groningen:
18-08-2007 20:00 AZ VVV-Venlo:
18-08-2007 20:00 Excelsior - FC Twente:
18-08-2007 20:00 NEC - Roda JC:
19-08-2007 12:30 De Graafschap - Ajax:
19-08-2007 14:30 FC Utrecht - Feyenoord:
19-08-2007 14:30 Heracles Almelo - PSV:
19-08-2007 14:30 Sparta Rotterdam - Vitesse:
24-08-2007 20:30 Roda JC - Heracles Almelo:
25-08-2007 19:30 PSV - NEC:
25-08-2007 19:30 VVV-Venlo - Excelsior:
25-08-2007 19:30 Willem II - Sparta Rotterdam:
26-08-2007 14:30 Ajax - sc Heerenveen:
26-08-2007 14:30 FC Groningen - De Graafschap:
26-08-2007 14:30 FC Twente - FC Utrecht:
26-08-2007 14:30 Feyenoord - NAC Breda:
26-08-2007 14:30 Vitesse - AZ:

So the first match is due in 12 days already!!

[Shabbaman]

I hate toto's, but I have no inhibition to shamelessly bump this thread.

[Matrix]

I don't hate toto's (obviously), but it seems this one is doomed to fail, so never mind. I just wanted to propose an alternative to the NFL stuff, because I thought it would be fun to have a sort of competition among us about football, but really don't care about individual players...

[BCLG100]

i'd play but i know next to nothing about the dutch leagues, perhaps later on a champs league thing?

[Matrix]

I was thinking about that, but then I realised almost all football fans here are Dutch. But I'll poll it.

[Shabbaman]

Well, last chance for this season. I'm only going to predict the matches that count:

Vitesse - PSV: Aadje Afkoopsom de Mos is always right, so I'll go with 2-1 here. So...

Ajax - Heracles: yes... if they win they're champions! So, to compensate for Feyenoord dropping to 14th place or so, the result of this match will be...

0-1.

Yes.

That one will give me a good mood for the next 3 years or so. I'm sure.

[Matrix]

Sorry, I can't give you any price for that... [rolleyes]

[ProPain]

Well, since this is all over and done with and [psv] is dutch champion again we can start talking about 2008-2009

Currently PSV is in shambles with the whole riot between Reker and Valkx/Gomes/de Visser. Aissati is saying his verbal agreement doesnt count and he's leaving. I;d say it's safe to assume there won't be a first time 5th in row championship for PSV next season unless Reker quits today and everything quiets down again.

Ajax with van Basten. Don't think that will amount to any good.

Feijenoord with Verbeek and a fairly stable selection. I think they'll do pretty good next season. My favorite to bring home the championship.

AZ (with van Gaal??) Could be crap, could be genius.

NAC: this season was lucky and with the trainer gone next year will be lower right row at best imo.

FC Heerenveen: subtop as usual

FC Groningen: They might just do pretty well next season as well.

[Matrix]

That about sums up my thoughts as well. :)

[Kingreno]

Having Riots right after the championship? With an European championship in 6 weeks? Pff, by the time the new season starts PSV will be just the same old club. They'll get 5.

[ProPain]

I so hope you're right KR :D