View Full Version : Protour, analyses.
Kingreno
02-07-2006, 08:47
Race one.
It appears that the first race ended in 2 large pelotons. One group consisting of 40 riders, the other 110 riders.
They finished 3,26 Minutes apart.
Notable weird things.
-Reno's Rumbling Roadkills Gorazd Delalande wins the sprint, though he's the ONLY rider of that team in the group of 40!
-Other teams, in particular Misfits and Supersonics' Cyclingsquads had the vast part of their teams in the group of 40, yet somehow they did not manage to get a victory. This is possible but as they did not even finish top 7 something is probably not right there!
-The winner. Well, he is not a good rider at all! He has 4 climb, 5 descend, 2 time, 4 steer and 3 sprint. He also has just 2 experience. I will not believe that this dude is even close to the best sprinters in the group of 40.
-Another strange team is Rambobank. They finish 3rd, 4th and 5th. Yet, they are the only riders of this team in the group. It would be severely illogical if all three join up in the mass sprint! Usually, about 20 km before finish the team would decide who's the leader (i.o.w. has the best form and most energy for the mass sprint left). the other two (or at least one) will then keep that dude out of the wind and guide him to a good spot for the sprint. There is of course a remote chance that 2 were guiding the 3rd to the sprint and their kinetical energy kept them going strong to get 4th and 5th but that is unlikely. Any ideas here??
There are probably other things, that I may have missed. Please do post your opinions here!
PP: I posted here except on the Cyclingpro forum as this place is perhaps a bit better suited for now.
We're working on logs atm, 1st drafts should be available today. If they're just abit decent they'll be posted on the site se we can all see what happens in a race. Shoudl provide more input about the engine.
Shabbaman
02-07-2006, 10:00
quote:Originally posted by Kingreno
Another strange team is Rambobank. They finish 3rd, 4th and 5th. Yet, they are the only riders of this team in the group. It would be severely illogical if all three join up in the mass sprint! Usually, about 20 km before finish the team would decide who's the leader (i.o.w. has the best form and most energy for the mass sprint left). the other two (or at least one) will then keep that dude out of the wind and guide him to a good spot for the sprint. There is of course a remote chance that 2 were guiding the 3rd to the sprint and their kinetical energy kept them going strong to get 4th and 5th but that is unlikely. Any ideas here??
I'm not surprised that I find several of my riders in the first group, I've seen it before in a similar fashion. I tried a late escape before the last mountain. Because that's 50 km from the finish that's probably too far, that's why they failed.
What you see here is that the 3 leaders in the first group are domestiques. That's not that surprising, I guess the others are tired. I also noticed in past races that if you want a late escape you can just as well appoint some total crap rider as a leader, because it's a captain who's going to win. Super secret tech.
Why those 3 riders finished in that order, I have no clue. The second in the group is the worst sprinter of the 3, and all 3 of them are better sprinters than your rider.
As to why those riders finished close together I do have a clue: my guess is that there's a piece of code that makes a team stick together, to simulate that they're helping each other. It's pretty clear that they're not, because like you say, if several riders of the same team are in the first group, something has to happen. There's no way they'll finish 3rd, 4th and 5th.
I've seen it worse though, 6 riders finishing together, with 5 of my team. 6 riders in a sprint, and the one guy from the other team wins. Unimaginable.
But these strange results are leading to wrong point distributions. If one of my riders had won, and the others would've been 10th and 11th I'd have gotten less points. It'd have made more sense to finish like that, and IRL it's winning that counts. Obviously the Pro Tour has a comparable point distribution, but it just doesn't feel right. Perhaps there should be bonuses for finishing on the podium, and for winning the rider ranking at the end of the season.
Stephko has come up with a new point distribution that increases the points for higher places. Also he's writing up how match orders work in more detail. I'll check how far he is doing this.
Edit: Just testing to see if I can edit pp's posts.... yup [melihere]
we'll blame it on Meli... shhh
Shabbaman
05-07-2006, 22:02
At first glance the result from race 2 makes some sense. A group that finished 21 seconds before the peleton. I'm very curious what's deciding the placement though. My rider that placed second has 1 wheel at sprint, so why doesn't the rider that placed 11th and has 3 wheels at sprint (and is the better rider in every other aspect as well) finish second (for instance)?
Another thing of note, my 3 captains are in the first group, but the leader in the second.
Kingreno
05-07-2006, 22:33
Different winner, same team.[drunks1]
But seriously.
as Shabba said. 11 riders manage to evade the peloton to get a 21" lead and sprint for the end. As massive accidents are not yet implemented (a big crash 5 km from finish could lead to this result) it is difficult to see this happening. the group of 11:
-has 5 (!!!) from Rambobank, 3 from RRR and 3 loners. 3 From one team is very rare but 5? No way any Peloton would let that happen...and certainly now in a flatter course.
-If for some reason a group like this does form, chances are high that one of RRR or Rambobank will win (say 75% Rambo, 24.9% RRR. 0.1% rest). which is just what happened.
-The rider winning, RRR's Tom Rosa has 3 sprint and 4 steer and decent experience, other skills like time also decent. Overall no McEwen at all but certainly not a utter moron either.
In the end hard to say if the result was ok.
Shabbaman
05-07-2006, 23:00
But then the follow up: so Rosa has 3 sprint, but does he have the time trial skill (and echelon?) to end up in that group in the first place?
In the second race my best sprint guy did end up first of my group and I asked for late escape with default distances.
Although how a guy can be 0 sec behind and not win I do not understand but...
Also the second guy in my group is 35 sec behind. I guess this makes sense to me as my sprinter left the pack but overall I just don't know enough about cycle racing to know what is normal or not
Kingreno
06-07-2006, 08:55
quote:Originally posted by Shabbaman
But then the follow up: so Rosa has 3 sprint, but does he have the time trial skill (and echelon?) to end up in that group in the first place?
Well, the other two riders in the group are my best 2 riders, They could easily make it in the top group, with Rosa having a good day jumping along with them. And as said, Rosa has decent skils all over.
@ Mistfit: If I remember correctly, seconds are rounded down. If, sprinting 60 Kph, riders finish e.g. 20 cm apart that is thus denoted as zero secs difference.
quote:Originally posted by Kingreno
Different winner, same team.[drunks1]
But seriously.
as Shabba said. 11 riders manage to evade the peloton to get a 21" lead and sprint for the end. As massive accidents are not yet implemented (a big crash 5 km from finish could lead to this result) it is difficult to see this happening. the group of 11:
-has 5 (!!!) from Rambobank, 3 from RRR and 3 loners. 3 From one team is very rare but 5? No way any Peloton would let that happen...and certainly now in a flatter course.
-If for some reason a group like this does form, chances are high that one of RRR or Rambobank will win (say 75% Rambo, 24.9% RRR. 0.1% rest). which is just what happened.
-The rider winning, RRR's Tom Rosa has 3 sprint and 4 steer and decent experience, other skills like time also decent. Overall no McEwen at all but certainly not a utter moron either.
In the end hard to say if the result was ok.
Working on the logs has helped us get some bugs out of sprint which should make this order perform better. Still some weird stuff in it, saturday will see another improvement. I just received new logs, will check them and if possible will put them online today. Still very, very crude logs though!
havent seen the log of the protour yet but 21" left over when a group of 11 escapes seems possible to me, no crash necesssary. Early escape could lead to that. That fact that a lot of riders from the same team end up in same escape groups is on our list to look into. Logs and major bugs 1st though.
Kingreno
07-07-2006, 12:34
Looking forward to next satudays race. Very very steep arrival at 2200 Meters+. It realy should generate massive differences all over the field, and a mass sprint would make it all look very stupid for the programmers.:D
Analysed the protour race:
RRR's leader did an early escape at 8 km
ScS's made a jump to the escaped RRR rider at 33 km
At the end of the race 9 more riders jumped to the 2 escapees
Group sprint won by RRR's Tom Rosa.
I think this isnt unrealistic although some weird stuff appears like 4 rambobank riders making the jump.
Sadly the text logs still do not reflect the actual race well enough to be posted. I'll be spending some weekend time on this and hopefully next week we'll finally have logs.
PP
Kingreno
07-07-2006, 22:24
quote:Originally posted by ProPain
RRR's leader did an early escape at 8 km
Had I actually ordered an escape after 8 km, this would be good. However. I did not. [cry]
Shabbaman
07-07-2006, 22:29
[lol]
quote:Originally posted by Kingreno
quote:Originally posted by ProPain
RRR's leader did an early escape at 8 km
Had I actually ordered an escape after 8 km, this would be good. However. I did not. [cry]
What did you order? Your match order says early escape but I cant see the values you set at a glance.
Shabbaman
08-07-2006, 21:32
Nice.
A fifteen year old wins the mass sprint of a climbing stage. I don't think I need to waste more words on this.
My 17 yr old did come in 6th :D
he does however have 11 tires between climb and decend and 3 tires experiance
My 7 wheel sprinter ends 32nd in a mass sprint... OK it's a mountain stage (he has 4 climb) but still he should end up higher considering the fact that it ended in a mass sprint.
EDIT: I still believe in the potential of this game and won't stop. But something remains strange about the game engine.
Shabbaman
09-07-2006, 10:49
Well, aside from the mass sprint, I'd have expected other rambobank riders on front than the one that were. That's what bothers me most, because it clearly indicates I have no clue how this game is working.
BTW, how does a rider get 7 wheels on sprint and 4 wheels on climb? The one kind of training decreases the other, doesn't it?
True, this rider's climbing skills are decreasing, but it seems that his sprinter skills are increasing faster.
Shabbaman
09-07-2006, 11:38
Hm. When I start training climbing, the first thing I see is that the sprint skill is falling. Perhaps training sprint isn't as bad for climbing as it is the other way around.
Still, 7 wheels is a lot btw. I wish my riders were that good.
Kingreno
09-07-2006, 17:39
My 7 wheel climber came in second, losing to a 15yr old. This all in a mass sprint. "back to the drawingboards" comes to mind as this result isn't just unlikely, it's impossible...
age isnt a factor at the moment, just so you know :)
The group breakdown still isnt what I would like it to be. I cant see the rider details atm so hard to see what the rider details exactly are. Will do tomorrow.
Kingreno
10-07-2006, 08:49
Even without age, and this is meant as constructive criticism!, a 2400m mountain climb should Never end in a mass sprint. But I am pretty certain you guys know that too.
Shabbaman
10-07-2006, 08:56
Should age be much of a factor then? It's physical and mental stats that should define a rider. Obviously a player with a lower age might have lower stats, like for instance experience. A young rider won't have much experience. That's why I think it's weird a lot of the youth pulls have such a high experience.
Age should be a factor but for now we've factored it out. Too much factors at the same time make it hard to balance the engine and this is turning out to be hard enough as is...
Shabbaman
10-07-2006, 10:00
How should age be a factor then?
Kingreno
10-07-2006, 10:05
In other sports 15 year olds may do fine but cycling typicly sees 22-23 year olds as the minimum age to enter e.g. the tour or classics. The young body simply cannot handle the severe torments of heavy coursing. There is virtually no possibilty a 15 year old can reach the top of a high Mountain before a 33 year old climber.
In the game, IMO they should make it very very hard for someone under 20 to win a course. This can be done by adding a (perhaps hidden) skill like "masculinity" or so.
Shabbaman
10-07-2006, 10:23
Well.
It's not as if it's impossible to finish a mountain stage as a youngster. But your musclature isn't as developed, and you lack experience. But in this game 15 year old riders can have better climbing skills and experience than some of the 30 year old riders you start with. If you'd ask me what the real crap is, it's that.
The young riders that are available are simply too good. The most annoying factor is their high experience. I think new riders shouldn't have any experience at all. If you gain experience by riding courses, or training, whatever, then you have your age factor. Look at the peleton, there are a lot of riders over 23 that can't finish a mountain race properly.
Another thing that could balance age (immmaturity) is that very young riders gain certain physical skills slower than older riders. So, training yourself a good climber should indeed be part of a lengthy program.
Also, youngster should be 18, 19, 20 years of age imvho...
quote:Originally posted by Shabbaman
Well.
It's not as if it's impossible to finish a mountain stage as a youngster. But your musclature isn't as developed, and you lack experience. But in this game 15 year old riders can have better climbing skills and experience than some of the 30 year old riders you start with. If you'd ask me what the real crap is, it's that.
The young riders that are available are simply too good. The most annoying factor is their high experience. I think new riders shouldn't have any experience at all. If you gain experience by riding courses, or training, whatever, then you have your age factor. Look at the peleton, there are a lot of riders over 23 that can't finish a mountain race properly.
Another thing that could balance age (immmaturity) is that very young riders gain certain physical skills slower than older riders. So, training yourself a good climber should indeed be part of a lengthy program.
I understand what you say and I agree with most your points. However atm we're busy doing logs and balancing the engine. Limited resources means limited capacity to change things. As things are now I value logs over the age problem.
The age point is on the list and willbe taken care off but it cant be done tomorrow (or this week...)
Shabbaman
10-07-2006, 21:00
Prioritize, prioritize. don't take me wrong, my post was more a reaction on your reaction to KR's reactio errr... De beste stuurlui staan aan wal, don't forget that ;)
Kingreno
10-07-2006, 22:10
And I claim my Right to whine! :D
Besides, what great game was born without the thorough whining of it's (Beta-)testers???
Shabbaman
10-07-2006, 22:14
civ3?
quote:Originally posted by Kingreno
And I claim my Right to whine! :D
Besides, what great game was born without the thorough whining of it's (Beta-)testers???
Whine as much as you like, it helps me a lot to prioritise what we change/fix first. So I;m not complaining about your whining just explaining why we cant solve all the issues as quick as you (and I) would like.
In yesterday's race I manage to get 4 riders in right group, but my elite sprinter only ends up 30th... He was set to domestique (EDIT: correction, to captain) this time, but the only difference now is that he actually was in the right group... The end result was just as bad.
Shabbaman
16-07-2006, 10:18
Interesting result. Team Rambobank managed to get it's whole team in the first group, except it's leader.
Kingreno
16-07-2006, 20:04
Anonymous Photographers have pics of no less then 7 Rambobank riders holding hands on the front of the first group trying to let no-one through, it almost worked.
Shabbaman
16-07-2006, 21:36
Next time I'll make them push the riders over the fence. It worked for Rik Verbruggen.
Shabbaman
19-07-2006, 16:10
Any predictions for today? It looks like a mass sprint, so I predict a succesfull escape by a single rider. My money is on Giordano Revoul from Colly's team. Safe bet.
Kingreno
19-07-2006, 16:16
Since I have the best climbers I'll probably win it. [backstab]
Kingreno
19-07-2006, 21:45
quote:Pos Rider Team Time (h:m:s) Avg. (km/h)
1 Gorazd Delalande Reno's Rumbling Roadkill 03:16:09 37.20
2 Hsiao Hua Danielak colly's team + 00:00:00 37.20
3 Giordano Revoul colly's team + 00:00:00 37.20
4 Glen de Vlaeminck colly's team + 00:00:00 37.20
5 Othmar Morge colly's team + 00:00:01 37.20
6 Gastone Da Costa Pereira Team Rambobank + 00:00:01 37.20
7 Ferdinando Campos Team Rambobank + 00:00:01 37.20
8 Hsu Fan Zuiker Team Rambobank + 00:00:02 37.20
9 Nebojsa Bott Team Rambobank + 00:00:02 37.20
10 Tomasso Roodhooft Team Rambobank + 00:00:02 37.20
Okay. this can't happen.
My strat was a late escape. The winner is a Domestique, which is acceptable, but again so many riders of one team in the top 10...
Shabbaman
19-07-2006, 22:14
My strategy was late escape as well. So unless colly's team is the ultimate dominating mass sprint team, this result is as dumb as a mass sprint at the end of the fake Alpe d'Huez race we had the other day.
To make it even worse, why are my best sprinters not higher ranked than my worst (and I do mean worst) "sprinters"? Besides that, please fix somehow that it's next to impossible to win for a single rider when the first ten are dominated by 5 from one team. Plus, four from another team. It's not really realistic.
I had mass sprint as the strategy. I would almost consider firing my elite sprinter, who ended up last in the first group of 30.... As a captain this time. His ranking when in a succeful escape is always around 30...
EDIT: The last 3 results are all very similar. Creepy!! Every time a group gets away and the same teams manage to score heavily every time. Also every time my leader ends in the last of the whole pack 10...
Kingreno
23-07-2006, 08:18
well well. Seems like a happy result for shabba and colly's teams![confused]
In a lead group finishing 47 secs before the peloton no less then 9 (NINE) out of 10 Rambobank and 9 (NINE) out of 10 from Colly manage to be in. 6 other riders also joined this bonanza but were simply cornered in by these two teams.
Not good!
Would be nice toknow what the strategy of Colly and Rambobank are, to analyse what exactly is the reason for this ever repeating event. It's a continuing story, but my top sprinter was in the right group again, finishing 18th this time...
MY guy won:) and he is the best rider in our division
Still trying to figure out how...
Shabbaman
23-07-2006, 23:52
quote:Originally posted by Kingreno
In a lead group finishing 47 secs before the peloton no less then 9 (NINE) out of 10 Rambobank manage to be in.
And the best thing is, my leader wasn't in the first group while he should be, and my best climber (and pretty lame sprinter) wins the race. At this point I think it's hard to figure out what parts of the game are working correctly.
Kingreno
24-07-2006, 11:10
I am also curious why the same teams keep finishing very very high. My training seems to have halted alltogether but I know my skills are more or less the same as e.g. Shabba's. And it can't be just teh matchorders as Colly and Rambobank cannot give the same order all the time.
quote:Originally posted by Kingreno
And it can't be just teh matchorders as Colly and Rambobank cannot give the same order all the time.
I agree with this. I'd almost change the name of my team to find out if that makes any difference...
Shabbaman
24-07-2006, 11:24
quote:Originally posted by Kingreno
And it can't be just teh matchorders as Colly and Rambobank cannot give the same order all the time.
Late escape is br0ken.
quote:Originally posted by Kingreno
...My training seems to have halted alltogether...
I have noticed a few changes in the skills of my squad since last week...
One of my captains ended 2nd last Saturday. But just like previous races again better sprinter end up further down the pack.
In other news: good to see that the youth squad is a bit older now (17 yo to 19 yo). Also I'm eagerly awaiting the improvements as they are announced on the home menu.
Shabbaman
31-07-2006, 08:01
quote:Originally posted by Aggie
quote:Originally posted by Kingreno
...My training seems to have halted alltogether...
I have noticed a few changes in the skills of my squad since last week...
I've seen 1 rider increase 1 wheel, and several players decrease. I'm training 5 riders with 3 trainers. IOW, training sucks.
I'm not going to talk about this game until they've actually changed something.
training bugs are under investigation now. It would help us a lot to find the bug if you can tell us which riders in your team are concerned Shabba.
And we are actually changing something but it takes a lot of time. I feel we're getting closer to more realistic results with the new engine. We've done some prelim testing and things look promising and tonight will see another testing session. Match logs are as far ready as possible, once the engine redesign is ok'ed logs should be out pretty quickly.
We have the distinct impression the sprint weirdness has to do with the fact that it takes teams to long to prepare the sprint which has them all crossing the finish line before their leader is positioned. We're testing this and have prepared some changes and measures to improve this.
Shabbaman
01-08-2006, 10:07
quote:Originally posted by ProPain
training bugs are under investigation now. It would help us a lot to find the bug if you can tell us which riders in your team are concerned Shabba.
I should've been clearer: I've seen several riders decrease their sprinting skill while they were training climbing, but so far I've only seen 1 rider actually increase his climbing skill. It's not the bug that KR encountered. I do have the idea that training is pretty much pointless though. I could live with riders only increasing 1 wheel after 10 weeks of training with 1 trainer, for instance, but because I have no idea what to expect it's getting somewhat annoying. A statement that some training might have been "forgotten" does not make it better.
I have recorded my training progress over the last few weeks.
Early July: Rider training Sprint from 6 sprint to 7 sprint
13/07/06: Rider training Sprint from 4 to 3 climb, Rider training climb 3 to 4 descent
24/07/06: Riders training Group Sprint from 4 time to 5 time
25/07/06: Rider training Climbing from 5 climb to 6 climb
28/07/06: Rider training Climbing from 5 climb to 6 climb
So I have seen no strange results as yet... Only thing to be said is that it appears to go slowly, even with the rider who has a trainer dedicated to himself.
@ Shabba: at first glance that could be normal. say your riders low 4 wheels: you'll notice the decrease in wheels much faster than the increase.
Basically all traits are measured on a 0-100% scale so each wheel represents a 10% interval. If you take a riders life cycle and season length in consideration you;ll understand that training will be slow. 1 wheel every 10 weeks would mean 2,5 wheels a season, so you can make a worthless sprinter a top notch one in 4 seasons, dunno if that is desirable. Your post makes me think about more intervals though.
normally decrease in traits is on half the rate of the increase of traits: training always has a net beneficial effect. If you tell me which riders you're training we can check quite quickly if your increase has been normal judging on the exact skill levels.
Kingreno
02-08-2006, 21:11
Again. colly's team and Team Rambobank dominate a lead group 90% of which is made up by these two teams...
I've got a dude that have 6 wheels on time and 5 on climb. One guy even has 7 climb. several have 5 time. Now...why aren't any of these in the lead group??? I cannot believe all of colly's and Rambo have extremely high skills...
Shabbaman
02-08-2006, 21:22
Ha, didn't even bother to adjust my lineup to the specifics of the race :D
I've not decided if my riders suck at this or I do... I am getting the felling though it is the second one..
best finish:
65318 2006-08-02 21:00 CyclingChampion Prize money, place 35 for Txema Santeroni
Shabbaman
02-08-2006, 22:18
I think both colly and me set the same lineup every time, and clearly the engine can't handle that.
Kingreno
03-08-2006, 09:08
I don't think that's teh case. I did late escapes too several times when you guys did taht too (PP can see that). It'd be nice if we checked.
quote:Originally posted by Mistfit
I've not decided if my riders suck at this or I do... I am getting the felling though it is the second one..
best finish:
65318 2006-08-02 21:00 CyclingChampion Prize money, place 35 for Txema Santeroni
Let us just wait for the race engine update before we question our own skills. Clearly all races until now have shown us that it is not us, but the engine that makes a mess of the end result.
Again my price sprinter ends last in the first group...
EDIT: I decided to set up things for a mass sprint and a couple of my guys were in the leading group, but not my leader. In fact I anticipated that a group would get away and that some of my riders would try to catch them (and that the leader would stay behind). I concluded this after reading PP's comments in the Cycling Champion forum...
Shabbaman
07-09-2006, 08:23
Ha! Just that, ha! Yesterday I bought several youth riders with 5 wheels (insert rolleyes smiley here), but when I got home I had forgotten to change my lineup. So now, my standard line up DOES win... ha!
Well, nothing new, but I noticed 1 improvement. Coincident or not, in this uphill finish there was a gap of 14 minutes between the first and the second group.
Kingreno
07-09-2006, 08:57
I managed to get 9 riders in the first group. However, my best rider (8 wheel climb) could not make it there. He did nearly win teh mass sprint though! [cry]
Shabbaman
07-09-2006, 09:05
Yeah, I don't understand why I have a 1 wheel climber in the first group and 5 wheel climbers in the second group. This is probably the absurd effect of riding in a group.
Kingreno
07-09-2006, 09:26
OTOH it should not be so that the better climbers are always in the first group. There are bad days, bad form in general, lousy tactics, rotten food. ect ect ect.
Shabbaman
07-09-2006, 10:03
Indeed. But is that random factor taken into account? And still, imo a 1 wheel climber shouldn't end up in the first group. Unless he was sent on an early escape, which in this case he wasn't.
or 9 from the same team in the first 9 places...very frustrating
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