Season 28 Match 2

[Swingue]

After buying my new wingback with 4,5 star i thought this should be an easy win. It was a good win, but not because of my new player. He got injured for 4 weeks and scored a measely 2 stars. What happened? In his last game (only one week ago) he did score 4,5 stars. Why not in my team?

grrrr.

anyways, 0-3 victory and i am first in the league

[Shabbaman]

They don't get the full rating when they get injured afaik.

One of my players got injured, for a change. On the bright side, I was already employing 10 doctors anyway. But at least I won 1-3, not as convincing as I had hoped. Top of the world though, mama, top of the world, errr... league!

[Kemal]

I escaped with a 1-2 victory against one of the weakest teams in my league, scoring the 2nd goal 8 mins from time. Injury woes continued though, now a defender was chopped down by the opposition, it really has been injury galore the last few weeks... as most here, 10 docs are permanently on the payroll these days.

[bed_head7]

I won 1-0 away against a far weaker team, but I played my B team so that I don't lose too badly in the cup match on Wednesday. I had one player get the only goal, as well as three of four reported missed chances and he was the only player named the whole match.

[socralynnek]

I won 1-3 away vs the maybe strongest team of the league.
Without the home advantage from the derby I wouldn't have won.

I PICed and had Paradise on Earth! after the game. Having bought a solid/solid coach before the round pays off!

[Melifluous]

Lost 0-3 at the demoted 4 division dude.

He woulda creamed me anyway, so I am pleased to have only let in 3 goals with PIC.

Team Spirit back to Calm now, ready for another PIC in the cup Tuesday.

Then its MOTS next Sunday followed by PIC's in the following 2 league matches (which I should win 1 of) and PIC in any further cup matches.

Then MOTS once more. I got this season PLANNED Team spirit wise ;)

[meli]

[Shabbaman]

Do you PIC that often because you can or because it's hopeless to begin with? I for one surely can't afford to pic in the league. Last season I could against 1 team, the only team I could do it against this season I played last sunday. I didn't pic, I wouldn't be surprised if he motsed.

[Melifluous]

I PIC because it's hopeless and I need the improved TS to MOTS other close matches...

I'm an IM trainer and the extra Midfield from MOTS means I kick ass (Solid (low)) in Midfield :)

[meli]

[Shabbaman]

Right...

Well, just asking. Two teams that promoted from my division picced close to the whole season. Normal is the same as a mots, in that case... But both were defender trainers, I think that might make a difference.

[Darth Pugwash]

3-2 victory..surprisingly close score actually seeing as I got over 70% possesion in both halves.

[Dell19]

Won 7-0, forgot to play my reserve forwards and a reserve midfielder. I did PIC though.

[arne1]

won 7-0 against a bot with pic, still steady on course for the title.

[Mistfit]

I'm befuddled... I should have won this match. WTF am I doing wrong? [aargh]

http://www.civ3duelzone.com/forum/uploaded/Mistfit/2006119134115_clipboard01.jpg

HO gave me a 78% chance of winning this and 4% chance of losing. Am I just being unlucky or is there something wrong with my set-up again?

[Dell19]

Looks like you are being unlucky although having better attack ratings would significantly boost your chances of winning.

[Mistfit]

I did play my best forward towards wing to boost my wing rating. He improves the rating of the wing much more if played that way than he does the forward possissition if played normal. Is this not a good idea?

[socralynnek]

On one wing you have about 26,5 % of your regular chances, central you have about 40%.
So boosting one iwng to give up the central attack is only a good idea if a) you are much stronger in the centr anyway or b) are much weaker in the centr anyway.

[akots]

Don't worry, I'm doing worse, just lost 2 very weird matches in a row like mine 35 stars against a 25-star team. First, it seems HO is doing something wrong with simulation; second, there might be some match bugs or match report bugs which incorrectly calculate the match or strength of players; third, bad luck happens, it would be compensated one day, you just have to live through. That's what I'm repeating to myself...

[Mistfit]

On the bright side I guess I did have the highest HatStat ratings of my division this week (128).

[Kemal]

Unlucky indeed, but as other have said this is due to an inefficient attack. You're only getting 3 out of likely 9 chances reported, meaning 6 others were not even close to being converted into a goal.

Since you expected to win, I presume that you had a pretty good idea that the midfield was always going your way by a very high percentage. I think that once you start dominating the possession by 65% or more, creating even more possession has less value than strengthening your attack since you'll almost assuredly going to receive 8 out of 10 chances anyway already.
Therefore, focusing on the attack by playing wingers and IMs offensive instead of normal or towards the middle might increase your chance to score and win the match even if the individual performance of the player decreases because of it.

Similarly, playing offensive wingbacks might pay off in those matches as well, since the wing defense will on average be tested only 0.5 times per match with the opponent having 35% or less possession. That means that in half of the game a defensive wingback is a totally wasted player, there might as well have been nobody there and the result would have been the same. On the other hand, as an offensive wingback, he might have contributed less, but that lesser contribution would have been called into action 2 times per match on average as he support your wing attacks occuring via that wing.

Final conclusion: don't let the stars or even hatstats fool you. Hatstats only counts the total of all ratings on the team and adds it up, whereas to win games, you have to make sure that those ratings that the match engine is likely going to use in your game are up to standard, since that is where goals are created or nullified. You could have had a divine central and left defense (and thus incredible hatstats) and the result would still have been a 0-1 loss, in this case.

[arne1]

I think it is mostly bad luck. You targetted his weak points correctly.
I agree with kemal that you need to strengthen your attack with anythng possible within the boundary of 3-5-2. Playing an offensive wing back improves the wing attack quite a lot if you have a wingback with around passable wing.